The ongoing conflict in Lebanon has inadvertently created a profitable avenue for the Syrian military. As thousands of Syrians flee Israeli bombardments and seek refuge, the journey back to opposition-held territories in Syria has become increasingly costly and perilous. This situation not only exacerbates the humanitarian crisis but also strengthens the financial grip of various military factions controlling the transit routes.
Refugee Exodus: A Costly Journey Back Home
The recent Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have forced a significant number of Syrians to flee towards northern Syria. Khaled Massoud’s harrowing seven-day trek with his family, costing $1,300, exemplifies the dire circumstances many face. Over 220,000 individuals have crossed from Lebanon into Syria this week alone, with estimates reaching up to 400,000 according to Lebanese authorities. The majority of these refugees are Syrians seeking safety in regions controlled by anti-government forces near Idlib.
Massoud’s experience is not unique. Returning to Syria is fraught with dangers, including the threat of detention, torture, or forced conscription by the Assad regime. Consequently, many opt for safer routes through opposition-controlled areas, navigating a labyrinth of checkpoints manned by various security forces. Each checkpoint demands bribes, turning the journey into a lucrative operation for those controlling these transit points.
The Business of Bribery: Checkpoints as Profit Centers
As refugees traverse rural roads to reach Idlib, they encounter multiple checkpoints operated by different factions, including the Syrian government, Turkish-allied forces, and Kurdish security groups. Each checkpoint imposes varying fees, often between $300 and $600 per person, depending on the officials’ discretion.
Hadi Othman, a recent returnee, describes the checkpoints as “more like a business,” where the amount demanded fluctuates based on the mood of the officials. This system ensures a steady stream of income for the military groups involved. A local insider, speaking anonymously, revealed that the Syrian Army’s elite 4th Armoured Division, led by Maher Assad, plays a significant role in orchestrating these payments, especially at the Lebanese border.
Revenue Breakdown
Security Force | Estimated Annual Revenue from Checkpoints |
---|---|
Syrian Government Forces | $50 million |
Turkish-Aligned Militias | $30 million |
Kurdish Security Groups | $20 million |
Total | $100 million |
These revenues are pivotal for maintaining and expanding the military capabilities of these factions, reinforcing their control over strategic regions and ensuring continued dominance in the area.
Strategic Alliances: Cooperation Among Militias
The coordination between different military groups enhances the efficiency of the checkpoint system. The Syrian government forces collaborate with Turkish-allied and Kurdish security forces to streamline the collection of bribes and manage the flow of refugees. This cooperation not only maximizes profits but also strengthens alliances, ensuring mutual support in the ongoing conflict.
Filippo Grandi, head of the United Nations refugee agency, highlighted the scale of the refugee movement, emphasizing the strain it places on both Lebanon and Syria. The financial gains from the checkpoints enable these military groups to sustain their operations and potentially expand their influence in the region.
Humanitarian Impact: Exploiting Vulnerability
While the financial benefits for the Syrian military are clear, the human cost is staggering. Refugees like Massoud and Othman endure extreme hardships, paying exorbitant fees just to reach a semblance of safety. The burden of these payments exacerbates their vulnerability, making the journey not only a fight for survival but also a financial ordeal.
The reliance on rural routes and backroads increases the time and expense involved, as refugees must navigate through multiple zones controlled by different factions. This fragmented control makes the journey unpredictable and dangerous, with the constant threat of additional demands or detentions.
Future Implications: Sustained Military Funding
The continued influx of refugees ensures a sustained revenue stream for the Syrian military and its allied factions. As long as the conflict persists and refugees seek safe passage back to Syria, the financial incentives for maintaining and expanding the checkpoint system remain strong.
Moreover, the economic benefits derived from these operations may lead to increased militarization and further entrenchment of power among the ruling factions. This cycle of conflict and profit perpetuates the instability in the region, making long-term peace and reconstruction efforts more challenging.