Asian shares opened the week higher on a broad rebound in technology stocks, and US equity-index futures held Friday’s gains. MSCI’s Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.5 percent with more than two shares rising for every one that declined across the gauge, and traders weighed whether last week’s two-day rout in chipmakers had run its course. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. revised its twelve-month yen forecast to 165 from 155, marking a 10-yen move in a single update.
Oil slipped as OPEC+ members backed another modest rise in collective quotas for next month and shipping through the US-protected corridor of the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of recovering. Brent fell 0.3 percent to $71.88 a barrel. Seoul meanwhile launched 24-hour trading of the won in a push to bolster the case for an upgrade to MSCI’s developed-market index, in what officials have framed as the centerpiece of a years-long push to broaden foreign-investor access.
Asia Opens the Week With Tech Leading the Tape
The biggest local gain belonged to Seoul, where the Kospi advanced 2.2 percent ahead of SK Hynix’s $29 billion US listing on the Nasdaq, per the July 6 markets wrap on Asian shares and oil. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5 percent as of 9:14 a.m. Tokyo time, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.4 percent, putting the tech-heavy gauge on track to pick up where it left off before Monday’s US holiday. Topix added 0.6 percent and Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.9 percent, but Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.3 percent on the day.
Early Asian trading signalled firming risk appetite in chipmaker and platform names that had led last week’s recovery. Markets drew a through-line from last week’s two-day rout to today’s cautious bid, with sentiment anchored in part by the question of whether the AI-driven rally has further room after that stumble. “Tech stocks and tech-heavy indices in the US and Asia have entered a period of consolidation ahead of the Q2 earnings season,” said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets in Sydney. The session’s tone was set by chipmakers and platform names that caught the bid from the regional open. Investors also weighed the fallout from the Iran war’s energy shock, an input that has hung over markets since the conflict began.
Underneath the visible tape, the session carried several heavier cross-currents. Brent dropped on the OPEC+ quota news even as equities held their gains, as Hormuz flows also recovered. The Goldman yen call, the OPEC+ supply note, and the Korean FX reform all sat underneath the green-in-Asia surface as the week’s quieter movers. Each of those threads runs through the rest of the trading week, from oil-quota follow-through to positioning around the SK Hynix deal.
Kospi Charges Into SK Hynix’s $29 Billion US Listing
The Kospi’s 2.2 percent gain reflected where the week’s real money was moving. SK Hynix Inc. has filed to raise approximately $29 billion through an American depositary receipt listing on the Nasdaq, with trading expected to begin on July 10. Underwriters plan to issue 17.79 million new shares, with each common share represented by ten ADRs. BofA Securities, Citigroup Global Markets, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan Securities are managing the offering. At filing, the company’s market capitalization stood at roughly $1.2 trillion, a milestone that pushed it past Samsung Electronics on the Kospi.
SK Hynix has said it expects the ADR listing to expand its investor base, and that trading on Nasdaq alongside US-listed peer Micron Technology would give it a chance to be valued against US peers. Final pricing will be set after the bookbuilding process, with Tuesday’s 2.555 million won close as the benchmark. Proceeds will go toward expanding fabrication capacity on the Korean peninsula, including construction of the Yongin semiconductor cluster and the acquisition of extreme ultraviolet scanners from Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML.
The Kospi’s Monday run reflected heavy turnover in the chipmaker complex and anticipation of the formal marketing process for the ADR offering, which SK Hynix kicked off the same day. The Korean currency was steady on Monday after rebounding late Friday from its weakest level against the dollar since 2009, with officials preparing for currency flows related to SK Hynix’s offering. Seoul’s separate 24-hour won debut gives foreign investors a wider window to manage their won exposure around the deal. AI infrastructure demand has driven most of the memory-chip rally this year. SK Hynix’s stock has gained more than 300 percent year-to-date, per a separate report. Investors are sizing the deal as a single-name liquidity event that matches the global chip complex’s appetite for AI exposure.
Asia session at a glance, Monday:
- MSCI Asia Pacific Index: +0.5%
- Kospi: +2.2%
- Topix: +0.6%
- S&P 500 futures: +0.5% (9:14 a.m. Tokyo)
- Nasdaq 100 futures: +1.4%
Goldman Pushes Its Yen Target Deeper Into the Weaker Zone
The yen story sits at the heart of the macro undercurrent. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. revised its twelve-month dollar-yen forecast to 165 from 155, a 10-yen move in a single update that pulled the bank’s three- and six-month targets to 162 and 163 respectively. The yen traded at 161.45 to the dollar in early Asian trading, near its weakest level since 1986, per a separate market dispatch.
Goldman strategists including Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global FX and interest rates research, set out the case in a note to clients. They argued that higher-for-longer US yields, low US recession risk, lingering fiscal concerns, and only gradual Bank of Japan rate hikes all argue against a meaningful yen recovery. The bank’s previous targets had already anticipated the currency remaining stuck above 150 versus the dollar. Now the three-month dollar-yen target is 162 and the six-month target is 163, both revised upward from 160 and 158 in earlier calls. The note lands as the bank steps further into a bearish yen stance it has held for months.
The broader macro backdrop of higher-for-longer US yields, low recession risk, lingering fiscal concerns, and only gradual BOJ hikes strongly argues for continued depreciation pressure on the currency.
Strategists including Kamakshya Trivedi wrote that line in a Goldman Sachs note circulated this week.
Goldman’s redrawn target adds weight to a yen that has been trading above 160 versus the dollar since early June. Japanese authorities have signalled in past weeks that they would intervene to slow the slide, though market sentiment remains skeptical that intervention alone can reverse the underlying drivers of yen weakness. That skepticism is in part why the redrawn target has been digested so quickly. Former Bank of Japan policymaker Sayuri Shirai said on June 23 that the yen could weaken toward the 163 to 165 range if the Federal Reserve decides to raise rates this year.
The yen carry trade connects Japanese monetary policy to global risk appetite, with investors borrowing cheaply in yen to deploy capital into higher-yielding assets, including US equities, emerging-market bonds, and digital assets. That linkage made the last major yen carry unwind, in July 2024, a global event, when a surprise Bank of Japan rate hike triggered sharp yen strengthening and rapid unwinds of leveraged positions across markets. Bitcoin dropped sharply in the aftermath of the 2024 unwind, not from any crypto-specific catalyst, but because global risk appetite contracted overnight. With Goldman’s higher yen target now implying stickier weakness, the funding channel stays open for traders willing to fund long positions in yen-borrow. The yen’s price action on Monday itself was muted: 161.55 per dollar in afternoon turnover, down 0.1 percent. The structural call behind the yen has clearly shifted.
OPEC+ Lifts Quotas as Hormuz Flows Resume
Energy markets traded counter to equities on Monday. Brent slipped 0.3 percent to $71.88 a barrel as shipping through the US-protected corridor of the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of recovering. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2 percent to $68.56 a barrel. The data flow sat at the intersection of two competing supply narratives for crude.
OPEC+ members backed another modest rise in their collective production quotas for next month. Saudi Arabia separately cut its August crude price for Asian customers by the most in at least 26 years, according to a separate Bloomberg markets dispatch also published Monday, in another signal of surging global supplies. Traders read the combination of OPEC+ supply and recovering Hormuz flows as incrementally bearish for crude, in line with the day’s price action. US protected-corridor shipping flows have continued to function, and Gulf producers are following through with quota additions. Brent at $71.88 a barrel now sits below the peaks seen during the early weeks of the Iran war.
The broader frame on oil is that the Hormuz disruption is gradually being priced out, even with the Iran conflict unresolved. A 0.3 percent drop in Brent on a day when Asian shares rose matches the typical signature of supply catching up to a previously disrupted market. Energy producers face a softer tape in oil despite the wider risk-on move in Asia, with WTI sitting below $70 a barrel. Spot gold was little changed at around $4,175 an ounce, with silver up 0.4 percent at about $62.66 an ounce, as commodity traders parsed the mixed signals. Saudi Arabia’s August price cut for Asian customers adds to that signal of surging global supplies. Iran remains unresolved as a geopolitical risk, and any renewed escalation in the Strait of Hormuz would shift the calculus.
Seoul Throws Open the Won Around the Clock
The most consequential structural move on Monday sat in Korea’s currency regime. South Korea launched 24-hour onshore spot dollar-won trading on Monday, opening the currency market to round-the-clock access for the first time. The reform is the centerpiece of a years-long Seoul push to broaden foreign-investor access to local markets, and is explicitly designed to bolster the case for an upgrade to MSCI Inc.’s developed-market index. The change follows an announcement by Korean authorities earlier this year to widen currency trading hours. The new cycle takes effect in line with the start of trading for SK Hynix’s US listing process.
Korean officials have been preparing for currency flows related to SK Hynix’s ADR offering, with the new hours expected to give foreign investors a wider window to manage their won exposure around the deal. The Korean won was steady on Monday after rebounding late Friday from its weakest level against the dollar since 2009. Onshore won liquidity now overlaps with offshore hours in London and New York, a structural shift that aligns Korea’s market with global FX operating windows. Foreign investors have pointed to limited access during offshore hours as a friction for Korean-asset allocations. Seoul has said the change is aimed at removing that friction alongside broader capital-market reforms. The launch coincides with the SK Hynix ADR pricing window, which begins July 10.
Treasuries and the Fed Minutes Frame the Week’s Test
The US fixed-income calendar sits as the week’s largest swing factor. Cash trading resumed on Monday after Friday’s US holiday, with the 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.48 percent. Auctions of 10- and 30-year Treasuries this week will test investor demand for longer-dated maturities in an otherwise light economic data calendar. The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting will be closely parsed, in particular.
Chair Kevin Warsh tempered his hawkish inflation stance last week, with traders trimming bets that the Fed will hike at its next decision after softer-than-expected US jobs data. Warsh said inflation pressures had eased, remarks that helped reinforce the dovish-tilt expectation in the Treasury market. Japan’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.800 percent, while Australia’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.80 percent, a reminder that Asia’s rates have not finished adjusting. The Goldman call on the yen is one expression of that broader picture: US yields holding higher for longer pulls capital out of Japan and reinforces the yen’s slide. Expectations for any hike at the next Fed meeting remain well below the levels priced earlier in the year, leaving the minutes as the next clear signal on the policy trajectory.
How the Rest of the Scoreboard Closed
The rest of the scoreboard on Monday read broadly in line with the day’s prevailing themes. Bitcoin rose 1.3 percent to $63,499.70 in early Asian trading, while Ether climbed 0.4 percent to $1,783.86. The euro was unchanged at $1.1437, and the offshore yuan held at 6.7851 per dollar. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed on the day.
| Asset | Move | Level |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | +0.5% | (9:14 a.m. Tokyo) |
| Topix (Japan) | +0.6% | – |
| ASX 200 (Australia) | -0.3% | – |
| Euro Stoxx 50 futures | +0.9% | – |
| Euro | unchanged | $1.1437 |
| Japanese yen | -0.1% | 161.55/dollar |
| Offshore yuan | unchanged | 6.7851/dollar |
| Bitcoin | +1.3% | $63,499.70 |
| Ether | +0.4% | $1,783.86 |
| 10-year US Treasuries | little changed | 4.48% |
| Japan 10-year yield | +2 bp | 2.800% |
| Australia 10-year yield | little changed | 4.80% |
| WTI crude | -0.2% | $68.56/barrel |
| Spot gold | little changed | – |
Crypto also had a session to watch against Goldman’s yen call, given the yen carry trade’s role in digital-asset liquidity. The yen carry trade links Japanese monetary policy to global risk appetite, with traders borrowing in yen to deploy capital into higher-yielding assets, including digital assets. The last major yen carry unwind, in July 2024, saw Bitcoin drop sharply, not from any crypto-specific catalyst, but because global risk appetite contracted overnight. With Goldman now implying stickier yen weakness through 2026, that funding channel stays open. Spot gold was little changed at around $4,175 an ounce after giving up earlier gains. Silver rose 0.4 percent at about $62.66 an ounce.
Asian markets entered the second half of 2026 on a cautious footing, balancing an unresolved energy shock with the still-active AI rally. The Kospi’s 2.2 percent advance carried the regional tape, with SK Hynix’s $29 billion US listing set to dominate the rest of the week. Seoul’s 24-hour won debut and Goldman’s deeper yen target both shape the longer-running repositioning underneath the visible tape. The week’s data flow is light, leaving the Fed’s June meeting minutes and the Treasury auctions as the next clear signals. Q2 earnings season draws closer, with investors looking for confirmation that massive AI infrastructure spending is producing the operating cash flows that justify this year’s share-price run.
