Christchurch business confidence in 2026 is running ahead of every other major New Zealand centre, even as the wider national mood turns pragmatic about an economy that no longer expects to return to normal. The 2degrees Shaping Business Study, released this week, shows the South Island city outperforming on the measures that now define sentiment: confidence, innovation, productivity and future growth expectations.
Two-thirds of Christchurch businesses describe themselves as upbeat in the face of economic uncertainty, per the NZ Herald’s report on the survey, against a national backdrop where 40% of firms say conditions are more challenging than last year and the long-running recovery narrative has effectively collapsed.
Christchurch Sets the Pace as National Sentiment Sours
The South Island’s largest city has spent the years since the 2010 and 2011 earthquakes rebuilding its commercial base around hospitality, construction, technology and a growing health and education cluster. The 2026 survey suggests that groundwork is now paying off in the form of a more confident operator base than its peers. Two-thirds of Christchurch respondents said they felt upbeat about the year ahead, the highest share of any major centre covered in the study.
The gap matters because the national picture is otherwise subdued. Forty per cent of New Zealand businesses say conditions are more challenging than in 2025, the 2degrees study shows, a reset the report attributes to fewer firms leaning on post-COVID momentum. Christchurch is one of the few centres where the regional figures run ahead of the country as a whole. Per the NZ Herald’s coverage of the study, the city led on confidence, innovation, productivity and future growth expectations.
The Numbers Behind the Gap
The headline figure from the survey, two-thirds of Christchurch firms calling themselves upbeat, is striking in a market where most measures are flat to down. The 2026 Shaping Business Study from 2degrees, now in its seventh year and based on responses from 555 business decision-makers, found 40% of New Zealand businesses reporting that conditions were more challenging than the year before. Across the country, 61% of firms expect revenue growth in the next 12 months and 49% plan to increase investment, both figures that the Christchurch data points to as already being exceeded locally.
The regional-vs-national gap is the kind of result the survey’s authors say shows up only when local conditions diverge from the central trend. Andrew Fairgray, 2degrees’ chief business officer, said the wider study found businesses “no longer planning around a recovery cycle.”
The study does not, in the public reporting, break out a city-by-city table of every metric. The Christchurch edge is a directional finding: a centre performing ahead on the cluster of measures that most often distinguish resilience from stagnation.
- 66% of Christchurch businesses say they are upbeat about the year ahead
- 40% of New Zealand businesses say conditions are more challenging than last year
- 61% of New Zealand businesses expect revenue growth in the next 12 months
- 49% plan to increase investment over the same period
- 78% of businesses with 50 or more employees expect revenue growth
A Shift From Waiting to Adapting
The wider story running underneath the Christchurch finding is a national change in how operators frame the years ahead. Fairgray, the 2degrees chief business officer, told the 2degrees study’s findings on a fading recovery mindset that businesses have stopped planning for a return to pre-COVID norms.
For several years, many businesses held onto the belief that conditions would eventually stabilise and we’d return to something resembling pre-COVID normality. This year’s report shows that mindset is fading and what’s emerging now is something more pragmatic.
The figures support the framing. Sixty-one per cent of New Zealand businesses expect revenue growth over the next 12 months, while 49% plan to increase investment. Both numbers sit on top of a year in which 40% of firms say conditions have grown more difficult, an outcome the 2degrees report treats as a reset.
The study also documents a turning point in how businesses approach artificial intelligence. 55% see a role for AI in improving productivity, a share that has stabilised from 2025, suggesting the conversation has moved from exploration to execution. Twenty-nine per cent of businesses say they cannot find someone with the right technology skills to support digital upskilling, a constraint that is now binding on adoption. Fairgray put the shift in plain terms: “The conversation has shifted from ‘Should we use AI?’ to ‘How do we actually make this work in a meaningful way for our business?'”
Where the Cost Pressure Has Moved
Even where confidence is highest, costs are climbing. Eighty-four per cent of New Zealand businesses experienced higher running costs in the past 12 months, the 2degrees report shows. The composition of those costs has shifted, and the shift helps explain which sectors and regions absorb the pressure most easily. Utilities, insurance and lease costs have overtaken labour as the single biggest driver of business expense increases in the 2026 reading.
The year-on-year change is material. In 2025, 47% of businesses cited utilities, insurance and leases as a key driver, with labour running ahead. In 2026, that share has risen to 57% for the same basket of fixed costs, while labour has fallen to 42%. Fixed overheads now account for a larger share of total expense growth, a change that hits operators on long leases and ageing infrastructure first.
Businesses are responding on both sides of the equation. Fifty-six per cent plan to raise prices in the next 12 months, and 75% are actively looking for ways to reduce costs, with moving to new suppliers the most common approach, at 32%. The Christchurch region’s mix of newer, smaller and more digitally engaged firms may be more nimble on the supplier side, an inference the survey does not make directly.
- 84% of New Zealand businesses reported higher running costs in the past 12 months
- 57% cite utilities, insurance and leases as a key driver, up from 47% in 2025
- 42% cite labour, which had previously been the largest cost pressure
The New Centre of Gravity: Larger, AI-Ready Firms
The 2026 data also shows a widening split between larger operators and the rest. Among businesses with more than 50 employees, 78% expect revenue growth in the next 12 months and 71% plan to increase investment, against all-firm equivalents of 61% and 49%, per the breakdown of larger-firm performance in the survey. The 50-plus cohort has tracked ahead of the cross-firm average since the study’s first edition in 2020.
The same larger-firm cohort dominates on operational metrics too. Fifty-seven per cent reported productivity gains, 71% reported investment growth and 81% reported AI adoption. Those three figures mark out a business population investing and automating at rates the rest of the market has not reached.
Size is part of the story, and so is age. A generational divide runs through the data. Businesses under five years old and owners under 35 were among the most optimistic cohorts surveyed, while 34% of businesses operating for more than 10 years and owners aged over 45 reported feeling less optimistic than they did in 2025.
The constraint most often cited is human, not financial. Twenty-nine per cent of businesses say they cannot find someone with the right technology skills to support digital upskilling, the binding constraint the survey identifies on AI adoption.
| Metric | All NZ businesses | 50+ employee firms |
|---|---|---|
| Expect revenue growth in next 12 months | 61% | 78% |
| Plan to increase investment in next 12 months | 49% | 71% |
What Christchurch’s Edge Suggests for the Year Ahead
The Christchurch result is one data point in a survey that does not publish a full city-by-city table, so reading too much into a single share would be a stretch. The 2degrees study does, however, put the South Island city ahead of the country’s other major centres on four of the most-cited measures of business health: confidence, innovation, productivity and future growth expectations.
The wider context is a national mood shift the survey’s authors describe as pragmatic. Fairgray told Idealog that the organisations performing best are the ones “embracing change, investing in capability, and finding ways to stay agile despite ongoing uncertainty.” Christchurch’s edge is consistent with that description, though the survey itself does not name the city as a case study.
One external pressure has risen sharply in the 2026 reading. The Idealog coverage of the report notes the research was conducted after the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, and that concern over global volatility and supply chain disruption climbed to the point that businesses across multiple sectors called for greater government support for supply chain resilience for the first time. The 2degrees report frames that concern as a feature of the new operating environment. For Christchurch, with its rebuilt infrastructure and tourism-heavy mix, the supply chain story is one of the open variables heading into the second half of 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the 2026 2degrees Shaping Business Study find about Christchurch?
The 2degrees study, the seventh annual edition and based on responses from 555 business decision-makers, found two-thirds of Christchurch businesses describing themselves as upbeat, the highest share of any major New Zealand centre covered. It is the standout centre on the four headline metrics, with regional figures running ahead of the national average on confidence, innovation, productivity and future growth expectations.
How does the 2026 study differ from the 2025 one?
The 2025 edition of the same survey recorded the highest business optimism since it began in 2021, with 45% of decision-makers feeling more optimistic than the year before. The 2026 reading is a reset: 40% of businesses now say conditions are more challenging than last year, and the long-running expectation of a return to pre-COVID norms has largely disappeared.
Why are more NZ businesses pessimistic this year compared to 2025?
The 2degrees report attributes the shift to fewer firms leaning on post-COVID momentum, and notes the survey was conducted after the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. Cost pressure has also intensified, with 84% of businesses reporting higher running costs and fixed overheads like utilities, insurance and leases now overtaking labour as the leading cost driver. It is the first year multiple sectors have called on the government for supply chain resilience support.
What is the biggest cost pressure on NZ businesses right now?
Utilities, insurance and lease costs. Fifty-seven per cent of businesses cited these fixed overheads as a key driver of cost increases in 2026, up from 47% in 2025, with labour falling to 42%. Three-quarters of businesses, 75%, are also looking for ways to reduce costs, with switching suppliers the most common lever at 32%.
How are larger firms performing compared to smaller ones?
Larger businesses, those with 50 or more employees, are running well ahead of the rest. Seventy-eight per cent expect revenue growth, 71% plan to increase investment, 57% reported productivity gains and 81% reported AI adoption. Smaller operators are more exposed to rising costs and economic uncertainty, the report finds. The 81% AI adoption figure has no published all-firm benchmark to compare against.
