Banking giant HSBC just lifted its price target for Nvidia stock to $200 from $125. This move, announced on August 20, 2025, shows growing faith in the chipmaker’s role in the booming AI market, even as it keeps a hold rating.
Why HSBC Made This Change
HSBC points to a bigger market for AI graphics processing units as the main reason. Cloud providers have ramped up spending by about 37 percent this year, fueling demand for Nvidia’s products.
The bank also sees faster growth in enterprise and government AI needs. Plus, a better view on China after licenses resumed for some Nvidia chips plays a part. These factors led to the 60 percent jump in the target price.
Analysts at HSBC predict Nvidia will report $46.7 billion in sales for its second fiscal quarter of 2026. That beats the company’s own guide of $45 billion and matches close to what others expect at $46.3 billion.
For the third quarter, they forecast $53.9 billion, near the street’s $53.3 billion estimate. This steady outlook suggests no big surprises ahead, but it highlights Nvidia’s strong position in AI tech.
Key Drivers of Nvidia’s Growth
Nvidia leads in AI chips, powering everything from data centers to self-driving cars. The global push for AI has sent its stock soaring over the past year.
Recent trends show tech giants like Microsoft and Google pouring billions into AI infrastructure. This directly boosts Nvidia’s sales of high-end GPUs.
In addition, sovereign nations are building their own AI systems, creating new markets. HSBC notes this trend could add billions to Nvidia’s revenue stream.
| Factor | Impact on Nvidia |
|---|---|
| Cloud Spending | Up 37% year-to-date, driving GPU demand |
| Enterprise AI | Accelerating adoption in businesses |
| China Market | Resumed licenses open doors for sales |
Risks in the China Market
Despite the upbeat target, HSBC warns about troubles in China. The size of the AI GPU market there remains unclear, which could lead to letdowns.
Prices might drop due to rules requiring revenue sharing with the US government. Chinese officials could also push back against using American chips.
These issues might cut into Nvidia’s earnings from the region. Without China sales in upcoming guidance, the company could miss out on $2 billion to $3 billion in near-term revenue.
Traders should watch how export rules evolve, as they directly affect Nvidia’s global reach.
What Other Analysts Say
HSBC is not alone in its optimism. KeyBanc raised its Nvidia target to $215 from $190 and kept an overweight rating.
Susquehanna bumped its target to $210 from $180, staying positive. Morgan Stanley adjusted to $206 from $200, also with an overweight view.
TD Cowen went even higher, setting a $235 target from $175. Overall, 64 analysts give Nvidia a buy rating with an average target of $227.95 for 2025.
This wave of upgrades comes ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report on August 27, 2025. Strong results could push the stock past its current $172 level.
- KeyBanc: $215 target, overweight
- Susquehanna: $210 target, positive
- Morgan Stanley: $206 target, overweight
- TD Cowen: $235 target
How This Affects Investors
Nvidia’s stock dipped 1.6 percent on August 20, 2025, and fell nearly 4 percent over the past week. Yet the new targets suggest room for a 16 percent gain to $200.
The AI boom continues to drive investor interest. Recent events, like Nvidia’s Blackwell chip launch, add to the excitement.
Long-term, experts see Nvidia hitting $200 or more by year-end if AI demand stays hot. But short-term swings from China risks could create buying chances.
Looking Ahead for Nvidia
Earnings on August 27 will be key. Analysts expect solid numbers, but guidance without China might temper gains.
If Nvidia beats forecasts, it could spark a rally. The company’s edge in AI tech positions it well for 2025 and beyond.
Investors tracking tech stocks should keep an eye on these developments. Share your thoughts on Nvidia’s future in the comments below, and pass this article along to fellow investors.
