The cybersecurity world may be racing against a ticking clock — and that clock is quantum. Former Israel National Cyber Directorate (INCD) chief Yigal Unna delivered a chilling warning: “Q-day” could arrive as early as 2025, potentially dismantling the very backbone of modern encryption and leaving nuclear arsenals vulnerable to unprecedented hacking.
The Quantum Reckoning: Is 2025 the Breaking Point?
Quantum computing has long been an impending shadow over cybersecurity. But Unna’s statement at the Cybertech Conference in Tel Aviv takes that shadow and turns it into a clear and present danger. He posed a blunt question: “What will be the October 7 in cyberspace, and are we ready for it?”
For context, ‘Q-day’ refers to the moment when quantum computers become powerful enough to break RSA encryption — the bedrock of online security for everything from financial transactions to national defense systems.
Many experts believed this day was still years away. But Unna suggested the timeline may have accelerated. He pointed to reports that China cracked a military-grade computer defense system in late 2024 — a sign that Q-day might already be upon us.
The implications are staggering. RSA encryption underpins the majority of secure online communications. If quantum computing surpasses that threshold, it could unlock classified state secrets, disrupt global financial systems, and even compromise nuclear command and control networks.
A Race Against Time — And Technology
The fear isn’t just about speed — it’s about scale. A quantum breakthrough wouldn’t stop at one target. It would cascade, ripping through systems worldwide. Governments and corporations alike are scrambling to shift towards post-quantum cryptography (PQC) — a new breed of encryption designed to resist quantum decryption.
But this isn’t a seamless switch. Encryption algorithms woven into global infrastructure take years to replace. And with the clock ticking faster than expected, the transition might come too late.
Unna stressed that resilience isn’t just about technology. It’s about mindset:
- Building systems that assume breaches are inevitable.
- Creating fallback mechanisms to ensure continuity.
- Encouraging international cooperation in threat intelligence sharing.
China’s Leap Forward — A Warning Shot?
Unna’s reference to China’s alleged success in cracking a military system has sparked intense debate. While the specifics remain classified, cybersecurity experts agree that China’s state-sponsored hackers are among the most sophisticated in the world.
If they’ve truly breached a quantum-resistant system, it could mark a seismic shift in global power dynamics. Western nations — including the U.S., U.K., and Israel — have poured billions into quantum research to maintain technological superiority. But a surprise leap from an adversary could tilt the scales.
The question now: Was this a one-off breakthrough, or a sign that China’s quantum capabilities are further ahead than publicly known?
Nuclear Systems: The Unthinkable Target
The most alarming consequence of Q-day is the potential for nuclear command and control systems to be hacked. Modern nuclear arsenals are heavily digitized, relying on encrypted communication networks to ensure only authorized personnel can launch weapons.
If quantum computing breaks those encryption barriers, a hostile actor could theoretically:
- Disable nuclear deterrents.
- Spoof launch orders.
- Hijack missile guidance systems.
The idea isn’t just theoretical anymore. Unna’s warning underscores how high the stakes have become.
Preparing for a Post-Q-Day World
So what happens next? Governments, tech giants, and cybersecurity leaders are in a frenzy to prepare. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has been racing to finalize quantum-resistant encryption standards, aiming for deployment before 2030.
But Unna argued that isn’t fast enough. He called for:
- Immediate upgrades to critical infrastructure.
- Faster adoption of post-quantum cryptography.
- A shift from reactive cybersecurity to proactive, adaptive systems.
His parting words were blunt: “To meet this kind of challenge, we need to build better resilience, improve the culture of sharing, and change all of the time.”
Whether the world listens — and acts fast enough — remains to be seen.
