Bitcoin’s Next Big Peak Might Be 2 Years Away, Analyst Says — and the Halving Cycle Could Be Broken

According to business cycle researcher Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets), Bitcoin’s next explosive move could be delayed until late 2026 — or even 2027 — thanks to a reset in the global economic engine that’s quietly unfolding beneath the surface.

His thesis? What looked like an economic recovery over the last two years wasn’t a full cycle — just a “short and shallow” detour. And now that detour may be over, resetting the timeline for risk assets like BTC.

A Blink-and-You-Missed-It Business Cycle

Tomas believes that the typical economic rhythm — growth, peak, contraction, recovery — got interrupted over the past few years. The culprit? A weak China, a surging U.S. dollar, and some odd macro distortions post-COVID.

“We saw an abnormal, short and shallow full business cycle over recent years,” he wrote on X. “It suppressed traditional PMI measures both in the U.S. and globally.”

To make sense of the confusion, Tomas built what he calls the Global Economy Index (GEI) — a mash-up of four real-time economic signals:

• Inverted trade-weighted U.S. dollar index

• Baltic Dry Index (global shipping rates)

• 10-year Chinese government bond yields

• Copper/Gold ratio

He standardized each into z-scores and then averaged them. The result? A composite that gives a clearer sense of macro health — without relying on laggy data like GDP.

And according to the GEI, the economy never reached full strength in 2023–2024. Instead, it slipped into a trough in late 2024 — suggesting the real business cycle bottomed early this year.

Is a Fresh Cycle Starting Now?

Tomas’s Global Economy Index appears to lead U.S. manufacturing PMI data by about six months — and that relationship is starting to reassert itself.

The big question: is the GEI’s recent rebound the beginning of a real, sustained economic upswing?

He thinks it might be. If so, based on historical patterns, we could be at the start of a multi-year expansion that peaks in late 2026 or early 2027.

That would push the next macro top — and Bitcoin peak — well past the usual four-year halving cycle.

“If Bitcoin continues its historical relationship with the business cycle,” Tomas notes, “this would probably obliterate the ‘four year halving cycle’ theory.”

Equities, PMIs, and Bitcoin: A New Alignment?

Here’s how Tomas sees the macro layers stacking up:

• GEI leads

• Equities sit somewhere in the middle

• PMIs lag

That’s why the S&P 500, which recently dipped into negative year-over-year territory, may already be reflecting late-cycle behavior — even as the economy enters a new cycle underneath.

Bitcoin: Still Following the Macro, or Going Solo?

Bitcoin hasn’t exactly behaved like a risk asset lately. It didn’t sell off hard during the supposed “end” of the last cycle. It shrugged off macro volatility. It blasted higher after ETF approvals.

Tomas floats two theories:

1. Bitcoin has matured — less volatile, more institutionally held, and no longer dancing to macro’s every beat.

2. Bitcoin is lagging — and the real move is coming, just a bit later.

Either way, if BTC is still connected to macro cycles — and if this really is the start of one — the next euphoric run could be two years away.

That’s bad news for halving theorists who expected fireworks in 2025.

When Cycles Clash: Halvings vs Macros

For over a decade, the Bitcoin community has treated the four-year halving as gospel. Supply cuts, followed by parabolic moves — rinse, repeat.

But Tomas’s framework suggests the halving might now be second fiddle to global macro trends. That could spell the end of neat, predictable four-year booms.

Here’s how the timelines compare:

This new model doesn’t just delay Bitcoin’s next high — it challenges the entire logic of timing the market around halvings.

What Could Derail This Outlook?

Tomas adds one caution: if the GEI rolls over again instead of pushing higher, it might mean the bounce was a head fake — perhaps inflated by recent tariff announcements or short-term shipping rebounds.

That would flip the bullish script, suggesting more macro pain — and more Bitcoin choppiness — ahead.

For now, the global economy looks like it’s rebooting. But for Bitcoin, the reboot might take a while to pay off.